The institute has developed national-scale wildfire hazard potential data layers to help communities, businesses and wildfire managers better understand the areas that are more likely to burn under high-risk conditions, and how severe fire behaviour is likely to be.

The data was developed by simulating more than 500,000 potential ignitions and wildfire growth around New Zealand. Fire scientist Laura Kiely, who led the work, says the team modelled potential fires under set conditions – not actual fires that have happened. “We’re not saying this is the number of fires that will happen at any time. Rather, we’re considering if we have an ignition occurring, then what happens? What does that look like? Combining data from a high number of simulations allows us to consider the potential fire behaviour and the probability of it occurring.”

The data combines information about likely ignition drivers, fuel and weather conditions and potential fire behaviour to provide a consistent, documented baseline for planning, prevention, preparedness and risk communication. The team is designing these layers so they can be shared and reused in operational tools and scientific workflows.